Every team is priced through four lenses: the ranking, a model, the transfer market, and the crowd. The signal lives where they disagree.

RANK (LAST): FIFA/Coca-Cola world ranking, live in-window. Lower is stronger. The arrow is the move since the 1 Apr official board.

PELE: Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver) power rating. A cardinal strength estimate, higher is stronger. WC PELE is the base rating plus a roster adjustment for current injuries and suspensions, shown with each team's rank out of 48. An INJ tag flags a side whose next match is hit by injury or suspension.

SENT: crowd sentiment, 0 to 100. How strongly the public rates a team.

OPTA: Opta's model score for the same team, 0 to 100. The model baseline.

EDGE: SENT minus OPTA. Positive means the crowd rates a team above the model (overpriced). Negative means below the model (underpriced). This is the mispricing signal.

BURDEN: travel and heat load, 0 to 100. Combines group-stage travel demands with committed match-time heat exposure. High burden is a side paying a heavy road and heat tax; low is a compact, cool schedule.

ALTITUDE (▲): shown in a group's fixtures only where elevation is a genuine factor: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City (2,200m) and Estadio Akron, Guadalajara (1,566m). Thin air cuts endurance and recovery and lengthens ball flight, an edge for acclimatized sides and a tax on sea-level teams. Monterrey and all US/Canada venues are near sea level. Source: Wikipedia, AP.

MARKET MOVERS: 10-year momentum. Net FIFA-rank change since 2015, read off each team's rank-history trendline (first point to last). Risers climbed the table, fallers dropped, each shown as the full move (e.g. 82 → 7). Tap a name to load it. Directional, not exact, since the 2015 start point is a chart read.

SQUAD VALUE: total Transfermarkt market value of the roster, in euros. The transfer market's price on the team.

STOCK: live re-pricing against a pre-tournament baseline. Baseline is expected group points from a stated model: each group game, win probability comes from the PELE rating gap on a standard Elo 400 curve, draw probability scales with how close the two ratings are, and expected points (3 for a win, 1 a draw) sum across all three group fixtures. As results land, STOCK shows actual points minus the expected points for the games played, as OUTPERFORM, INLINE or UNDERPERFORM. The baseline is published and locked before kickoff. A performance read, not a forecast.

MARKET READ: a top-level synthesis of the card. The chip rates squad price against results (the value gap). The note leads with whichever lens diverges most across model (PELE), price, crowd (sentiment), path (group depth) and load (burden, altitude). The FANTASY and BETS tags point at where a line may be soft. It is mispricing context built from public market bias, not odds and not advice. A nudge, not a call.

MKT-CAP FACED / VALUE SEED: in a team's group book, the combined squad value of its three opponents (the money it must get past), and its rank by squad value within the group.

CONF / GROUP INDEX: average of the ranks shown for that confederation or group. Lower means a stronger pool.

TIER: a rank bucket used for color only (T1 1-10, T2 11-25, T3 26-50, T4 51+). Not FIFA seeding pots.